THE FUTURE ISN’T ALWAYS BRIGHT
Bet on the bad news.
The only prediction market where every bet is that something goes wrong. Settled in USDC. Powered by a user-owned vault.
Early access at downside.bet
01 / A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE
Some see bad news. You see a position.
The world doesn’t always go up and to the right. Downside lets you take a position on the other direction. Every market asks one question: will something go wrong? You only bet yes.
Economy
Recessions. Rate hikes. The next economic reckoning.
EXAMPLE / RECESSION DECLARED
Markets
Crashes. Sell-offs. When the chart takes the stairs down.
EXAMPLE / BITCOIN BELOW $50K
Climate
Extreme heat. Historic storms. A world at the edge.
EXAMPLE / RECORD GLOBAL HEAT
02 / FROM CONVICTION TO POSITION
One conviction. Four steps.
01
Find your downside
Pick a market. Decide which bad outcome you think will happen.
02
Back your conviction
Connect your wallet and stake USDC on yes. Your keys stay yours.
03
Let the world unfold
The market resolves against its stated outcome and deadline.
04
Right? Get paid.
If it happens, the vault pays automatically. If not, your stake goes to the vault.
THE UPSIDE OF BEING RIGHT
Put a number on your conviction.
03 / THE OTHER SIDE
Don’t predict the worst. Be the house.
Not everyone wants to bet on bad news. Fund the USDC vault instead. Together, vault depositors take the other side of every position.
When a bet loses, its stake flows into the vault. When a bet wins, the vault pays out. Your capital backs real risk — returns are never guaranteed.
DOWNSIDE / LIQUIDITY VAULT
The house is all of us.
OUTCOME DOESN’T HAPPEN / Stake enters vault
OUTCOME HAPPENS / Vault pays the winner
USDC denominated. User funded. Automatically settled.
04 / A MARKET FOR THE UNCOMFORTABLE
Fear has a price. Now it has a market.
We’re wired to notice what could go wrong. Most markets ask you to look past it. Downside gives that conviction a place to go — turning an uncomfortable view into a transparent position, not just another doomscroll.
No optimism required. Just conviction.
BE EARLY. NOT OPTIMISTIC.
Get early access
The future is uncertain. Your place in line doesn’t have to be.
Launch updates only. No noise. No wallet required.